Dead Cat Bounce PDF Print E-mail
Thoughts - on Strategy

I am wondering whether this latest financial crisis is actually the last “Dead Cat Bounce” of the British Empire.

Just listening to some of the commentary, there seems to be a strong possibility that the crunch will lead to a reshuffling of capital markets into a more global system. New York, I guess, will retain its status as one of the main hubs, but does the West really need two?

I guess not.

That means that London (and Frankfurt, for that matter), will diminish in importance, sending over control to an Asian powerhouse (Hong Kong, Shanghai?). What will that leave for the UK? Can’t help but think about these lyrics from a beloved song:

You can live a life of luxury
If that's what you want
Taste forbidden pleasures
Whatever you want


You can fly away to the end of the world
But where does it get you to?
cause just when you least expect it
Just what you least expect

Love Comes Quickly, The Petshop Boys

What does the United Kingdom have left that is export-capable other than its financial services?

There is education, IT, science. There is art and culture (think Music, Theatre, Fashion, and Haircuts). All not exactly bullet proof in a deep recession. I am concerned.

Comparing that with Germany, where there is a focus on cars and investment-grade products like trains, power systems, etc., the UK economy will not benefit from government “New Deals” that invest in infrastructure (like transportation, power, dams, etc).

Bleak times indeed.

What would I do if I lived in the UK? Fight like hell to get financial services back on track! FAST.

 
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